Joe Biden's entry resets a very volatile Democratic primary

1. The current top tier is former Vice President Joe Biden and Joe Biden alone after his announcement last Thursday.
2. There is a second tier of candidates that has a number of candidates in it including a declining Sen. Bernie Sanders and slowly rising Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

Biden scored 39% in our CNN poll and 38% in the Quinnipiac poll. Compared to the March polls from those outlets, Biden's up 11 and 9 points respectively. That's a clear indication of an announcement bump, which could dissipate with time.

Still, Biden entered the race with near universal name recognition and some bad press. With that in mind, it's noteworthy that Biden even got a bump. Biden is about 25 points ahead of the competition in both the CNN and Quinnipiac polls. This lead could fade, but it's tough to argue with the idea that Democratic voters are at the very least interested in what he's selling.

Democrats for now seem far less interested in what Sanders is offering. He dropped from 19% to 15% in CNN's poll and 19% to 11% in Quinnipiac's. He maintained second place in the CNN poll, though he placed in third place in the Quinnipiac poll behind Warren.

The average of these polls puts Sanders at a meager 13%. Sanders also got his worst poll to date in New Hampshire on Tuesday. For now, it's not just that Sanders isn't close to Biden nationally. It's that he is not even significantly ahead of four other candidates.

Warren, for instance, scored at an average of 10% in the two polls. CNN and Quinnipiac did differ on the size of her bounce. Both, however, have in either second (Quinnipiac) or third (CNN), while she was in fifth in both last month. On average, the two polls have up from 6% last month.

Warren's numbers may be a sign that her emphasis on policy and policy papers is paying off. At a minimum, she isn't dropping off. If she receives a few more polls that show her ahead of Sanders, there will be a real question as to who those on the left edge of the party really prefer.

Buttigieg, on the other hand, is at an average of 9% in these polls. That's a climb from last month, though it isn't much different than the 8% he got in a Monmouth University poll in mid-April.

The only other two candidates at this point clearing 5% are Kamala Harris and Beto O'Rourke. They averaged 7% and 6% respectively in the CNN and Quinnipiac polls, which is down from the the low-double digits for both last month. Both had benefited from announcement bounces.

Now, it could be argued whether Harris or O'Rourke belong in the same tier as Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg. They all clear 5% and fall short of 15% on average. To me that indicates they have some base, though not a giant one.

All of them are right now are looking up at Biden who is in a tier by himself.

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