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Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Sweden success proves Houthis will only respond to force

They agreed to a ceasefire in the strategically important port city of Hodeidah, through which the vast majority of the country's imports and aid flow. The truce concluded seven days of constructive talks in the town of Rimbo, Sweden, which have rightly been heralded as a positive sign that we are entering the beginning of the end of this terrible conflict.
For many, the very fact that the talks took place came as a surprise. The Houthis have ducked every meaningful attempt by the UN to negotiate, most recently in Geneva where they waited until the government was sitting around the table before pulling out. Others claimed the talks would not have happened if the US Senate had not actively engaged with the issue.
Yemen ceasefire goes into effect in strategic port city of Hodeidah
The truth is, for the Yemeni government this latest victory was the culmination of a year-long peace process which began December 6, 2017, a year to the day before the Houthi delegation landed in Stockholm. Coalition and Yemeni government forces had then liberated the two Southern cities of Aden and Mukhalla from the Houthis and Al Qaeda, respectively. Following liberation, the Yemen government sought peace talks, triggered by the rising humanitarian costs in Houthi-controlled northern territories.
The Houthis had shunned any attempts to negotiate and were diverting or extorting the aid that the international community was trying to inject via Hodeidah. Their leaders were enriching themselves and funding their war machine, while the citizens around them grew hungrier and hungrier.
No citizens of theirs, of course -- the Houthi tribe represents barely 5% of the population. When locals would not take up arms, they turned to children. And when the fighting went against them, they laid landmines to scorch any deserted earth. Coalition forces have cleared an estimated 300,000 mines since 2016 . These crimes cannot go unanswered.
It was clear then that the only way to rescue Yemen from their stranglehold was to return Hodeidah to the elected government, as mandated by UN Security Council Resolution 2216. Without Hodeidah, the Houthis would be starved of their primary financial source and their main supply line from Iran. They would have no choice but to talk. The experience in Mukhalla and Aden demonstrated how quickly aid and development can be delivered and return life to normality.
So on the night of December 6 last year Yemeni government forces, backed by the Arab coalition, began the offensive into the Hodeidah governate with the explicit objective of putting pressure on the Houthis to negotiate by providing a credible threat to their occupation of the port and city.
The coalition has been clear and consistent every day since that first night one year ago. It has sought to avoid fighting in urban areas at all costs; protect the ability of the port to operate; and expedite the peace process while alleviating a desperate humanitarian situation in Houthi-controlled territories. We have succeeded on all three counts.
The word "credible" was key -- this strategy could only be successful if the Houthis really believed the city would be taken. Coalition forces stood ready to do just that if the rebels refused to give peace a chance.
Our calculation was that the country would suffer more from another year of stalemate and deterioration than from an ugly but necessary fight in the city. There were no good options, but some were clearly better than others.
Criticism was expected and we understand that it was necessary for others to emphasize the costs of action in Hodeidah. The coalition knew the risks better than anyone, and made every possible preparation to minimize them.
But in this war, as in others, you will not make progress against a stubborn and brutal opposition unless you can project strength and determination.
It is the coalition and the Yemeni government with skin in the game. Both continue to lose men in this fight. We, with our Saudi allies, are the ones in range of Houthi missiles. It is the coalition which is spending more than anyone else -- the UAE alone has given about $4 billion, and Saudi Arabia many multiples of that -- on providing aid and care for Yemenis affected by the war.
The coalition will suffer most if our brotherly neighbors do not climb out of this terrible period of instability, particularly if the final settlement leads to a Hezbollah-type missile threat in the Southern Gulf.
An end to the conflict may be near, but it will not be easily achieved. The lessons of Syria, Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan have been learned, and peace will not endure without lasting and stable foundations.
The last week's developments were encouraging and we are thankful to UN Special Envoy Martin Griffiths for coordinating them. But the coalition and the Yemeni government know this enemy better than anyone else and that the hardest work lies ahead. The Houthi rebels have shown this week they will only respond to force, and so we must continue to be strong in order to finish this war for good.

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